Difficult Predictions about the Future

Disclaimers:

  • — I am making these predictions for the short-medium term (short– < 5 years medium —10-30 years)
  • — I am deliberately not choosing to distinguish between the short and medium term to keep the amount rigour and research I’ll need low/manageable to my free time
  • — Some of these are part of optimistic/wishful thinking on my part, I’ll strive to be clear, but can’t promise the boundaries to be very clean.
  • — Skin in the game,(I don’t expect to benefit from any of this in the short-term. In the long-term I might, but that’s very unsure. This is primarily an exercise for the self more than anything else).
  • —- My political priors are set in something of the American idea of left, but I find the simplistic notion meaningless(for ex: I’m a economical conservative).
  • —- I am not going to go to the extent of creating links or citations. The motivated can google and find it out themselves.

One short thing before we begin, I paraphrased the quote from a famous person. Read on till the end to find who it is.

Predictions:

  • — The warming will accelerated due to the second-order effects of global warming like El Nino disruption, arctic(& antartic??) ice melt, trapped methane release etc..
  • — There will be more pandemic/epidemic level medical emergency situations(due to release of ancient pathogens, ecological balance disruption etc..) which in turn will add to the emissions via plastic pollution and pharma(and logistics)-industry led emissions.
  • —- The feedback cycle of new industrial plant-> local micro climate warming-> health degenerative effects-> economical difficulties will become obvious enough to trigger a bunch of lawsuits against the major contributors to climate change.
  • —- There will be a movement of environment protection terrorists, who will have to fight against the oligarchy controlled government/law enforcement trying to progress the more planet-destroying “infrastructure development.”
  • —- Media will become more and more biased (and more partisan)until, eventually there will be technologies that aid in collating different media sources trying to infer their prior biases.(A sort of view from everywhere) Ideally this technology would have to be de-centralized to be the most effective, but that’s not a easy thing to do. So instead we’ll have big media houses that have their own biases and collate news sources with confirmation bias.
  • — Organizations will be forced to reflect on their incentive setup and look for alternatives(the SV style stock options is one instead of promotions/bonuses) that encourage both collaboration and competition.
  • —- Organization sizes will need to be re-thought dramatically to build a new one.(For ex: last decade the “culture-fit” was a big thing in tech startups).
  • —- Around the world, economic Inequality will rise and keep rising to levels where social unrest is inevitable. Depending how each of the local leaders handle it we’ll either have a world-war comparable war between two big nations or a global revolution. Practically though I think our leaders will successfully keep blaming the causes on convenient and easy to exploit/silence/dominate small enemy neighbour countries.
  • —– Bio-terrorism will rise and come up as the newer threat to the survival of the species, though it will be lagging behind climate change based threat.
  • —– There will be a new market for services that have a lower carbon footprint(and another for services with high carbon footprint as a luxury/status symbol)… We will make some false starts towards carbon tax.
  • —– The natural disasters will become common(extreme forest fires, super storms, extreme heat and cold temperatures etc..).
  • —- Global agriculture will get into a big struggle and stress trying to keep the food production up.
  • —- Climate based migration will be a reality(it already is to some extent).
  • —- Society will go through another round of fractious minor struggles for resources and begin to find new tribes and tribal conflicts.
  • —- Countries, politicians and governments will be forced to use climate measures as part of their political campaigns in democratic countries.
  • —- The media will become more fractionated, opinionated and become more of political puppets for everyday election campaign style propaganda.
  • —- The stock market will keep growing via the current monetary inflation policy till one day it can’t go on and will collapse, but will slowly recover, with the “greener perceived” companies commanding higher premiums.
  • —- Food prices will skyrocket, hoarding will become common.
  • —- Software will evolve to also track power used by that application and it’ll become part of a feature
  • —- The Cryptomining industry will collapse.. especially “proof-of-work” based coins.. The “proof-of-stake” based ones will go on and enable new applications that have decentralization as the core feature.
  • —- AI will automate as many tasks as we can, but the humans’ whose job it is automate will evolve into more complex roles (in s/w move from writing code to writing specs like architect, and debugging devops, bug fixes etc..) .
  • —- AGI(Strong AI) will not be reached.. People will keep trying, some will claim Singularity is on the horizon, but there’ll be another boom and bust of funding in AI.
  • —- If we’re lucky, we’ll end up turning to nuclear power as the saviour for the world’s energy needs and try to convert the nuclear weapons into fuel.. If we’re unlucky this will happen only of after some of the weapons are triggered and used.
  • —- Healthcare industry will get a long-term research boost , but the operations part will still be driven by low-cost pressure from the insurance industry, jeopardizing the understanding and research is the long-term.(Of course, this is my philosophical stance, practice and theory can’t be too apart, you may disagree).
  • —– The big data + big tech warping the public opinion and media and via them the democracy will continue, powered mostly by advertising money, lobbying etc.. Eventually though, environmental activists will organize and buy the ad-space too.
Here’s the Answer:

It’s Niels Bohr. Here’s a goodreads link.

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